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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042344
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Isaias which is rapidly moving northeastward over the 
northeastern U.S.

A small well-defined low has formed within a broader trough of low 
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This 
system is producing very little thunderstorm activity at this time, 
but some slight development is possible while the system moves 
little during the next couple of days. A southwestward drift is 
forecast on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)

...CENTER OF ISAIAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...
 As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 4
 the center of Isaias was located near 43.6, -73.0
 with movement NNE at 40 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 31A

Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 042350
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020
 
...CENTER OF ISAIAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.6N 73.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNW OF RUTLAND VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Watch
Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 6 to 12 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 43.6 North, longitude 73.0 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York
and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada
tonight.
 
Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph
(80 km/h) with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is expected this
evening, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or
early Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, there have been numerous
reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) across portions of
Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and southeastern New Hampshire.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND:  Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected tonight in
the tropical storm warning area in southern New England. These
winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.
 
Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday.  See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along
and near the track of Isaias across northeast New York, northern
Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and Southern Quebec.
 
Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias could result in flash
flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding
terrain of the Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through tonight.
Scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is
ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor and possible moderate river flooding.
 
TORNADOES:  A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New
England through this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 042132 CCA
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SANDY 
POINT...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL 
POTOMAC RIVER...AND DELAWARE BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS 
ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF STONINGTON...MAINE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY POINT NEW JERSEY TO STONINGTON MAINE
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N  74.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  35 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE 300SE  90SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N  74.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N  75.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 46.3N  72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 190SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N  71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.1N  67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N  74.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 042057
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020
 
NOAA Doppler radar data from Islip, New York (KOKX), indicated 
70-kt winds just off the surface south of Long Island earlier this 
afternoon, along with buoy reports from New York Harbor Inlet 
(44065) that supported lowering the intensity to 55 kt, so that 
value is used for this advisory.
 
The motion remains north-northeastward or 020/35 kt. Isaias will 
continue moving north-northeastward through tonight, accompanied by 
a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 12 hours or, the cyclone is 
expected to interact with a larger extratropical over southeastern 
Canada and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near western 
Maine. By 24 hours, Isaias is expected to transition to an 
extratropical low, and dissipate or become absorbed by the 
aforementioned larger extratropical low. The new NHC track forecast 
is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies very close 
to the tightly clustered consensus track models.
 
Isaias will continue to gradually spin down and lose its tropical 
characteristics. The precipitation has decreased in size and also 
has become more stratiform in appearance, which are indications that 
the cyclone is gradually weakening. This downward trend should 
continue until Isais becomes an extratropical low in 12-24 hours.
 
There also remains a risk of tornadoes across portions of New 
England this afternoon and evening
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power 
outages will continue to spread across New England tonight.
 
2. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River 
Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through 
urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack 
and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to 
moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the 
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be 
susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.
 
3.  The threat of tornadoes will spread into New England this 
afternoon and evening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 42.7N  74.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 46.3N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  05/1800Z 50.7N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  06/0600Z 53.3N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/1800Z 54.1N  67.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 042045
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020               
2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HALIFAX NS     34  2   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONCTON NB     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34 14   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34 31   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
PORTLAND ME    34 50   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
 
CONCORD NH     34 93   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34 65   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
 
WORCESTER MA   34 96   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BOSTON MA      34 67   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
HYANNIS MA     34 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34 74   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW HAVEN CT   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HARTFORD CT    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34 97   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 
ALBANY NY      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ALBANY NY      50 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
POUGHKEEPSIE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
POUGHKEEPSIE   50 90   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34 89   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
 
ISLIP NY       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NEWARK NJ      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NEWARK NJ      50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TRENTON NJ     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TRENTON NJ     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NWS EARLE NJ   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ALLENTOWN PA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics

Tropical Storm Isaias 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 23:57:54 GMT

Tropical Storm Isaias 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 21:24:43 GMT

Local Statement for Philadelphia, PA

Issued at  510 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for Albany, NY

Issued at  512 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at  513 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for Baltimore/Washington

Issued at  516 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for Portland, ME

Issued at  517 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for New York City, NY

Issued at  527 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for Caribou, ME

Issued at  547 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Local Statement for Boston, MA

Issued at  638 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042344
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 4 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form south or southwest of 
the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for at least gradual 
development after that while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 05 Aug 2020 00:00:28 GMT