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NHC Atlantic

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201140
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. However,
development of this system is becoming less likely due to
increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds.  This low should move
generally northwestward and could bring heavy rainfall to portions
of the Cape Verde Islands later this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 20 Sep 2014 11:41:11 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


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Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Polo, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The Weather
Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, has written the last
advisory on the remnants of Odile.

An area of low pressure could develop early next week a few hundred
miles south or southeast of southeastern Mexico. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development while this system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm POLO (EP2/EP172014)
    ...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 20 the center of POLO was located near 20.7, -108.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm POLO

  • Tropical Storm POLO Public Advisory Number 17A
    Issued at 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 201131 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 ...POLO FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 108.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM... PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 200831 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Forecast Discussion Number 17
    Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200834 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014 Polo continues to lose organization due to the effects of 25-30 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The low-level center is exposed to the northeast of the convection, and the convection has decreased in both coverage and intensity over the last 24 hours. In addition, water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air moving over the low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB. Based on these data and trends since the last advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The initial motion is 315/6. Polo should gradually turn west- northwestward in the next 24-36 hours as a mid-level ridge builds north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows the shallow remnant low turning south-southwestward as a low-level ridge to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. During the first 48 hours, the new track forecast is again a little to the north of the previous forecast, and it lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope. After that time, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast. The large-scale models forecast the shear to continue for the next 72 hours while Polo moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a dryer air mass. This combination should cause steady weakening, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a tropical depression in about 36 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and intensity consensus guidance. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force winds are most likely to remain south of the Baja California peninsula. However, any deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.5N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 200833 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 0900 UTC SAT SEP 20 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm POLO Graphics
    Tropical Storm POLO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2014 11:32:38 GMT

    Tropical Storm POLO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2014 09:04:47 GMT ]]>

Remnants of ODILE Public Advisory Number 41
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system.  Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as  long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 300 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014