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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012304
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha, located near the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bertha are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
    ...BERTHA MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 1 the center of BERTHA was located near 15.2, -61.9 with movement WNW at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm BERTHA

  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 4A
    Issued at 800 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 012354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 800 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 ...BERTHA MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 61.9W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM WSW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SATURDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WEATHER STATION ON DOMINICA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H. GUADELOUPE RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON GUADELOUPE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 012048 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND... LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 61.2W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 61.2W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 69.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.4N 72.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 38.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 012048 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014 Earlier observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and recent surface observations from Martinique indicate that Bertha still has a closed circulation, although the area of westerly winds south of the center is rather small. The aircraft- reported pressures were 1006-1007 mb, and the Martinique data suggests a current central pressure of 1007 mb. Based on this and the aircraft wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. New convection is currently developing in this bands near the center, with a more solid area of convection farther east. The initial motion is now 290/21. Bertha continues to be steered west-northwestward by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this should continue for the next 36-48 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. This motion should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the Atlantic between Bermuda and New England, and then by a northeastward motion over the open North Atlantic. While the track guidance has nudged a little to the left since 6 hours ago, it remains in good agreement with this scenario. The new forecast track is therefore tweaked just a little to the left of the previous track, and it is a little faster than the previous track after recurvature. Bertha continues to experience about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, and a combination of water vapor imagery and microwave total precipitable water shows abundant dry air near the storm. The forecast track calls for Bertha to interact with one or two upper- level troughs during the next 48 hours or so, which should cause some shear and dry air entrainment to continue. This, combined with the current lack of organization, suggests little change in strength should occur during that time. This part of the new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. Subsequently, Bertha is expected to move into an environment of less shear and greater moisture. The intensity guidance responds to this by forecasting significant intensification, with several models showing Bertha becoming a hurricane during recurvature. Based on this, the latter part of the intensity forecast is nudged upward from the previous forecast, although it is still weaker than most of the guidance. An alternative scenario remains possible: that a combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction causes Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48 hours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when the system reaches the more favorable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 16.0N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.9N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 22.4N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 38.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 012048 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 9(32) X(32) X(32) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONCE 34 1 55(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) PONCE 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PONCE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 1 41(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JUAN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT CROIX 34 5 44(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SAINT CROIX 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBUDA 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GUADELOUPE 34 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) AVES 34 52 6(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) AVES 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MARTINIQUE 34 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
    Tropical Storm BERTHA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 23:55:35 GMT

    Tropical Storm BERTHA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 21:05:46 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
Issued at  648 PM AST VIERNES 1 DE AGOSTO DE 2014

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.
Issued at  648 PM AST FRI AUG 1 2014

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012335
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Corrected to change 48-hour category to high for first disturbance

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 550 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression over the weekend as it moves westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower activity remains minimal in association with a weak low
pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii.  Upper-level winds are not currently conducive
for development, but they could become a slightly more favorable in
a few days while the low moves generally westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
    ...ISELLE STOPS STRENGTHENING FOR NOW... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 1 the center of ISELLE was located near 14.5, -126.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm ISELLE

  • Tropical Storm ISELLE Public Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 ...ISELLE STOPS STRENGTHENING FOR NOW... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 126.4W ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS... AND ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 012033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.4W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.4W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 131.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.3N 133.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.6N 136.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.9N 138.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 5
    Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014 Iselle has a well-defined structure in visible imagery and at times seems to have been trying to form an eye. However, the convective pattern as observed in infrared satellite imagery has been a little ragged and not as well structured. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are now unanimously T3.5/55 kt, but final-T estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT have actually dropped to T3.1/47 kt since this morning. Based on these numbers, as well as a 50-kt estimate from a recent ASCAT-B pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The strengthening trend may be taking a temporary respite, but environmental conditions should support further intensification during the next 2-3 days. Modest northerly shear appears to be impinging on the storm, but that shear is expected to diminish in a day or two. By that time, thermodynamic conditions will become a little more marginal as Iselle approaches the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement in showing modest strengthening, although the peak intensities have decreased a bit. Based on the latest guidance, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Iselle reaching a maximum intensity of 70 kt in 36-48 hours. The track models are also in good agreement, showing very little spread during the first 3 days. The subtropical ridge to the north of Iselle should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward track during that time. Iselle's forward speed is then expected to slow down on days 3 and 4 as it gets impeded by a mid-level ridge near Hawaii, and then speed up again on day 5 when the ridge slides eastward. No significant changes were required to the official track forecast, and the NHC points continue to lie very close the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.5N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 15.9N 131.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 16.3N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 16.6N 136.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 16.9N 138.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ISELLE Graphics
    Tropical Storm ISELLE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 20:34:29 GMT

    Tropical Storm ISELLE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Aug 2014 21:06:30 GMT ]]>