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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

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NHC Atlantic

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 272314
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental
conditions have become less conducive for the wave to develop.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 28 Jun 2017 00:05:42 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272314
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dora, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this week a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the weekend
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Dora (EP4/EP042017)
    ...DORA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 the center of Dora was located near 19.6, -111.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Dora

  • Tropical Storm Dora Public Advisory Number 12
    Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 272041 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 ...DORA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 111.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 111.4 West. Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night, with a turn toward the west expected Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Dora is expected to become a remnant low Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. During the past several hours, the Mexican automated station on Socorro Island has reported wind gusts of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Dora will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico through Wednesday, and also affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Advisory Number 12
    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272041 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.4W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.4W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 12
    Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272042 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a recent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is generous. Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The official intensity forecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. The initial motion is 290/11. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h. After that, a westward or south of westward motion is expected. The official forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the south of the model consensus between 24-48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 272042 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042017 2100 UTC TUE JUN 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Dora Graphics
    Tropical Storm Dora 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 20:47:51 GMT

    Tropical Storm Dora 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Jun 2017 21:22:40 GMT ]]>