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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 202359
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation.  In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day.  Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday.  The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds.  Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida.  Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:25:51 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202324
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kenneth, located a little more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
    ...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 16.8, -129.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Kenneth

  • Hurricane Kenneth Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210251 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...KENNETH RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 129.1W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kenneth was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 129.1 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kenneth is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane may reach a slightly higher intensity Monday before commencing a weakening trend Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210251 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.1W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 129.1W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 128.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Hurricane Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210252 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kenneth Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Kenneth has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane this evening, as the eye has dramatically warmed and the surrounding cloud tops of the eyewall have cooled. At 00Z, a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications averaged maximum winds of 95 kt. However, the continued convective development in the last three hours suggests that the advisory intensity be boosted to 100 kt, and even that may be conservative. While the hurricane has shown an impressive evolution in the last day, this should not continue much longer. Kenneth will reach the 26C SST isotherm with drier, less unstable air late Monday, and it is anticipated that Kenneth will peak by then. In about three days, the vertical shear will go up appreciably due to Kenneth approaching an upper-level trough. The combination of the hostile thermodynamics and shear should cause a steady weakening through the forecast period. Kenneth's deep convection is likely to dissipate in three to four days, signaling the system's transformation to a post-tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast is substantially higher than previously in the short-term due to the unanticipated rapid intensification, but similar for 36 hours and beyond. This prediction is closest to a blend of the HMON dynamical model and the LGEM/SHIPS statistical models. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 kt, steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast. Kenneth should gradually turn toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days at about the same rate of forward speed, as it rounds the mid-level ridge and is impacted by a cut-off mid- to upper-level low farther north. Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days, its forward speed should slow as it reaches a weaker steering flow. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged through day 2 and is farther north beyond that time, based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.8N 129.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Hurricane Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210251 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC MON AUG 21 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 1 16(17) 9(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 4(59) X(59) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) 25N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Hurricane Kenneth Graphics
    Hurricane Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:01:30 GMT

    Hurricane Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Aug 2017 03:25:38 GMT ]]>