000
ABNT20 KNHC 192331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BARRY...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE JUST OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm BARRY (AT2/AL022013)
  ...BARRY POISED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of BARRY was located near 19.6, -95.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm BARRY

• Tropical Storm BARRY Public Advisory Number 11
  Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...BARRY POISED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 95.8W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL... AND WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
• Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Advisory Number 11
  Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200237 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO TUXPAN MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.8W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.8W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 95.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
• Tropical Storm BARRY Forecast Discussion Number 11
  Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND STRONGEST WINDS. A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
• Tropical Storm BARRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
  Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 200238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 0300 UTC THU JUN 20 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 16 36 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 56 46 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 28 18 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 49 2(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) VERACRUZ MX 50 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
• Tropical Storm BARRY Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2013 02:39:01 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2013 03:03:43 GMT ]]>

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192331
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
FORECASTER BERG

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 20 Jun 2013 03:43:50 GMT