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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191739
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda,
and on recently upgraded Hurricane Jerry, located several hundred
miles east of the Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible while the system
approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across
the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located just south of Hispaniola. Although upper-level winds are not
conducive for significant development, this system is producing
persistent showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development is
possible during the next day or two as long as the system remains
over water. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few
days while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development thereafter and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Remnants of Imelda Public Advisory Number 10

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Humberto was located near 38.5, -58.7
 with movement NE at 24 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 960 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 29

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT...
...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 58.7 West.  Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A slower north-
northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday.  A turn
toward the east-northeast is expected to commence by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a
post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380
miles (610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 29

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 192032
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  58.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N  58.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N  59.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.4N  57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 42.8N  55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  80SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 44.6N  51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N  44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N  58.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 29

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 192033
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is almost a post-tropical cyclone.  Satellite images show
a well-defined cold and warm front, but they do not appear to be
fully connected to the center of circulation yet.  In addition, the
cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection to
the northwest of the exposed low-level center.  ASCAT data from
earlier today indicated that the wind field of Humberto is very
large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 330 n mi from
the center and hurricane-force winds extending out to 70 n mi from
the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt for
this advisory.

The cyclone is anticipated to become fully extratropical soon,
within the next 6 to 12 hours.   Although weakening is forecast,
Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical
cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another
extratropical low over the north Atlantic.  The NHC intensity
forecast generally follows the guidance of the GFS model, which
typically handles extratropical lows better than the tropical
cyclone intensity guidance.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt.  A slight turn to the
left and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next
12 to 24 hours as the cyclone rotates around the east and north
sides of a mid- to upper-level low to its west.  After that time, a
faster east-northeast or east motion is expected when the cyclone
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the
various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 38.5N  58.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 40.4N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1800Z 42.8N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0600Z 44.6N  51.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 45.6N  44.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FONT14 KNHC 192033
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)  15(15)  17(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X  17(17)  20(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34 43   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:35:23 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:24:55 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19
 the center of Jerry was located near 17.5, -55.8
 with movement WNW at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 979 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 192041
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north
of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so
before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.  This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods.  Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of
the northern Leeward Islands.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 192040
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  55.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  55.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  55.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N  57.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N  60.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N  63.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N  65.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N  68.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N  65.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  55.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 192043
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central
dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours.
Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb
flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt,
suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye
feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating
that the earlier intensification has probably continued.  Thus, the
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better
estimate.

The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before
northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning.  The shear
increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air
to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone.
Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing
into Saturday.  Some re-strengthening is possible early next week
as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude
trough interaction.  The new NHC wind speed prediction has not
changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect
the above possibility.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A
large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to
steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the
next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the
north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast
follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the
then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday,
north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north-
northeastward by Monday/Tuesday.  The guidance has moved to the
northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger
mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge.  The NHC forecast
is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on
the western side of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 17.5N  55.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 18.4N  57.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.5N  60.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.7N  63.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.9N  65.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 24.9N  68.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 33.0N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FONT15 KNHC 192041
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  44(49)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABA           34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE

Hurricane Jerry Graphics

Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:42:38 GMT

Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 21:32:06 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191736
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
Tropical Storm Mario, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Lorena, located near the coast of southwestern
Mexico.

Thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
North Pacific has increased since early this morning but remains
disorganized. Some slow development of this system is possible
during the next day or two while the system moves little. Further
development is unlikely after that time as the system interacts with
and is possibly absorbed by Kiko.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
Mexico in a day or two. Only slow development, if any, is expected
thereafter while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19
 the center of Kiko was located near 16.3, -129.3
 with movement WNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 30

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 192045
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...KIKO SMALLER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 129.3W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 129.3 West.  Kiko is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northwest
motion is expected later today through Friday night.  A
west-southwestward motion is expected this weekend and into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Slow re-strengthening is forecast for the next
few days, and Kiko may regain hurricane strength within the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 30

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192045
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  90SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 129.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 30

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 192045
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019

In terms of organization (and latitude) Kiko appears to have hit
rock bottom and may now be on its way back up (and north). After the
last advisory, Kiko briefly lost all of its central deep convection
and consisted of a low-level swirl of clouds.  Since then,
convective activity has increased substantially and now a rain band
appears to be trying to wrap around the northern semicircle of the
tropical storm.  ASCAT data around 1800 UTC showed max winds of only
35-40 kt, but given the improvement in the structure of Kiko since
that time, the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt.

Aside from small adjustments due to the lower initial intensity,
little change was made to the intensity forecast. Most of the
guidance calls for at least slight strengthening, and the dynamical
models are still calling for Kiko to become a hurricane again. Dry
air is still the primary limiting factor, and if Kiko can ever
reform a well-defined inner-core, it could strengthen more quickly
than forecast. By the end of the forecast period, Kiko could
encounter an even drier environment and most of the guidance calls
for weakening.

Kiko is beginning to turn west-northwestward, and a turn toward the
northwest is expected soon. The tropical storm is still forecast to
move slowly westward on a wave-like path due to fluctuations in the
strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance is in
particularly poor agreement on the speed Kiko will move west and by
day 5 the ECMWF and GFS are 750 mi apart. Although only minor
changes were made to the NHC forecast, which remains near the model
consensus, confidence in the track forecast is much lower than
usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.3N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.5N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 17.9N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 17.0N 136.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 18.0N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 192045
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 130W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
10N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  20(22)  17(39)   5(44)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)  10(14)   7(21)   3(24)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
15N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
15N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:51:54 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:51:55 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)

...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19
 the center of Mario was located near 17.1, -110.4
 with movement NE at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 192053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 110.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.4 West.  Mario is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general
motion is expected tonight and early Friday.  A turn toward the
north is anticipated by late Friday.  After that time, Mario could
turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 192052
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 192053
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the
low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection.
In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this
afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend
of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from
TAFB.

A significant change to the track forecast was required based on
the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now
forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days.
The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much
Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is
further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very
near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC
forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5
days, but confidence in the forecast remains low.
For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of
the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the
first 24 h, given current trends.

Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the
next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce
substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of
significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations
are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is
forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will
likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 192053
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142019               
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 110W       34  X  15(15)  51(66)   5(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
20N 110W       50  X   1( 1)  20(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
20N 110W       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
25N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   1(16)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tropical Storm Mario Graphics

Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:54:20 GMT

Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:54:20 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19
 the center of Lorena was located near 21.6, -107.0
 with movement NW at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 192036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ISLAS MARIAS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 107.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch along the
east coast of the Baja California peninsula from north of La Paz
to San Evaristo, and along the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula from north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Fe to
Puerto Cortes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 107.0 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed should continue through Saturday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight,
pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula
Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.  A Mexican navy automated station on Isla Maria
Madre island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (73 km/h)
and a wind gust of 65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this
evening.  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late tonight.  Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019  

208 
WTPZ25 KNHC 192035
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ
TO SAN EVARISTO...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA FE TO
PUERTO CORTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  40SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE  60SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 107.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 107.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 192037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to
determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone
interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.
The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical
issues and was unable to complete its mission.  Thankfully, a
fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent
ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure
of the cyclone.  According to that data, the center is located just
southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of
45-50 kt.  Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in
small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt,
which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher
satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the
inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is
expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains
in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so.  As a
result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or
over the southern Baja peninsula.  After that time, interaction
with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed.

Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/11 kt.  The cyclone should turn west-northwestward
tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and
Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest.  If Lorena remains separated
from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the
northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern
portion of the ridge.  The new NHC track forecast lies between the
HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja
California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening.

3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday.  A Hurricane
Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                              

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 192036
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019               
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
IS GUADALUPE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
PUNTA EUGENIA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   2(17)   X(17)
PUNTA EUGENIA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)  23(29)   2(31)   X(31)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  4  78(82)  10(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X  40(40)  15(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X  16(16)   7(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2  62(64)  11(75)   1(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  1  30(31)   9(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   8( 8)  23(31)   2(33)   2(35)   X(35)   X(35)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
LORETO         34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  16(24)   1(25)   X(25)
25N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics

Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:39:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 20:39:08 GMT