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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271146
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a
well-organized tropical wave located about 475 miles east-southeast
of Barbados. However, the low appears to lack a closed circulation
at this time. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should
monitor the progress of this disturbance, since warnings and watches
could be required at any time. Regardless of whether the system is a
tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to
tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward
Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning
tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is
drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before this system moves
inland over Mexico during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 27 Sep 2016 12:00:24 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271145
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Roslyn, located well southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.  The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is
issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ulika that is expected to move
northeastward into the eastern Pacific basin by Wednesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred south
or south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system late this
week and this weekend while the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Ulika are issued under WMO header
WTPA32 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Ulika are issued under WMO header
WTPA22 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
    ...ROSLYN WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 27 the center of ROSLYN was located near 17.8, -117.7 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm ROSLYN

  • Tropical Storm ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 8
    Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 ...ROSLYN WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 117.7W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Roslyn was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 117.7 West. Roslyn is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast early Wednesday, followed by a north-northwestward turn Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Roslyn is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight and a remnant low on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 8
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.7W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.7W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.0N 116.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.3N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 8
    Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016 Roslyn's center appears to be losing some definition in infrared satellite imagery, and all of the associated deep convection is displaced to the north and northeast due to strong southwesterly shear. Roslyn fell within the nadir gap of the latest ASCAT passes, but the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based on a gradual lowering of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. This value is also in accordance with the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Increasing shear, gradually cooling SSTs, and dry mid-level air should induce additional weakening, and deep convection is likely to dissipate within the next day or two. The new NHC intensity forecast shows Roslyn becoming a remnant low in 36 hours, and it is expected to open up into a trough by day 4. The initial motion is now northeastward, or 050/6 kt. Roslyn is expected to turn northward toward a deep-layer low located over the Baja California peninsula during the next 36 hours. It should then turn northwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 and 3 after it has become a remnant low, steered by lower-level ridging. The official track forecast has again been nudged east of the previous advisory toward the latest TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.8N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.7N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 21.3N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 23.5N 119.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 27 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ROSLYN Graphics
    Tropical Storm ROSLYN 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2016 08:34:35 GMT

    Tropical Storm ROSLYN 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Sep 2016 09:04:37 GMT ]]>

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192016)
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 11.6, -140.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

  • Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 140.4W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 140.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast late Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2016 CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.4W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 140.4W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 140.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.3N 140.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.9N 139.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 139.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N 139.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.1N 141.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 140.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN ]]>