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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251129
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 25 Jul 2016 12:40:09 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251128
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Frank, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Hurricane Georgette,
located about 1200 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm FRANK (EP2/EP072016)
    ...FRANK WEAKENS WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Jul 25 the center of FRANK was located near 20.1, -113.2 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm FRANK

  • Tropical Storm FRANK Public Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250831 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 ...FRANK WEAKENS WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 113.2W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Frank was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 113.2 West. Frank is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a west-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Frank are affecting the coasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of Sinaloa. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250831 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.1N 122.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.5N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 15
    Issued at 300 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250832 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 300 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016 Deep convection associated with Frank has diminished considerably since Sunday. Since the vertical shear over the storm is weak, the likely cause for this decrease is the upwelling of cooler ocean waters beneath the slow-moving cyclone. The current intensity estimate is reduced to 55 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from SAB, and this may be generous. Since the storm is expected to begin moving west-northwestward at a faster forward speed soon, it should temporarily pass over a warmer ocean. Thus some slight restrengthening is forecast within the next 24 hours. After that, decreasing SSTs should induce gradual weakening. Frank is likely to be reduced to a remnant low pressure system in 4 days or so, and this could occur sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Frank had been quasi-stationary over the past several hours, although recent images suggest a slightly north-of-west drift at about 280/3 kt. The mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone collapsed, causing a very weak steering current. However, the global models predict that the ridge to the north of Frank will rebuild over the next several days and this should produce a west-northwestward motion with some acceleration. Late in the forecast period, the shallow remnant low is likely to move mostly westward in the low-level flow. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one and close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 20.1N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 20.6N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 21.6N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 23.1N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 24.5N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRANK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250831 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 3 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRANK Graphics
    Tropical Storm FRANK 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Jul 2016 08:33:36 GMT

    Tropical Storm FRANK 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Jul 2016 09:06:12 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane GEORGETTE (EP3/EP082016)
    ...TINY GEORGETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 25 the center of GEORGETTE was located near 16.9, -126.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane GEORGETTE

  • Hurricane GEORGETTE Public Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 250833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GEORGETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 ...TINY GEORGETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 126.8W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Georgette was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 126.8 West. Georgette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Georgette is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Georgette is likely to fall below hurricane strength on Wednesday. Georgette is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain ]]>
  • Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250833 TCMEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 126.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.6N 130.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.4N 133.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 143.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 126.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane GEORGETTE Forecast Discussion Number 15
    Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016 Georgette is maintaining its organization. The cyclone exhibits an annular appearance, with a nearly symmetric CDO and essentially no banding features. A 0245 UTC SSMI/S hints at a possible eyewall replacement, though it's not clear at what stage it has progressed. Dvorak satellite classifications are a unanimous T6.0 at 0600 UTC, and on this basis, the intensity estimate is kept at 115 kt. The initial motion estimate is 315/09. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north and east of Georgette would tend to steer it westward or west-northwestward during the next few days. However, an upper- low ahead of it should continue to impart a more northwesterly motion, though at a much reduced forward speed. After 72 hours, Georgette is forecast to become a much shallower cyclone, at which time the track should bend toward the west and accelerate in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is not much different than the previous one, except that it is slower beyond 72 hours and a little to the south, in agreement with the consensus track guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward. Georgette's movement over a colder sea surface and into increasingly drier and more stable air mass should soon result in weakening. The caveat is that Georgette's annular structure could allow it to maintain more strength than forecast in the very short term. By 48 hours, however, the thermodynamics in the storm's environment should become hostile, and a more rapid weakening is expected to commence. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus, except prior to 48 hours when the storm's annular characteristics have been taken into account. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 16.9N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 17.6N 127.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 19.6N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.4N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 29/0600Z 22.3N 138.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 22.4N 143.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain ]]>
  • Hurricane GEORGETTE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250833 PWSEP3 HURRICANE GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 0900 UTC MON JUL 25 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane GEORGETTE Graphics
    Hurricane GEORGETTE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Jul 2016 08:35:30 GMT

    Hurricane GEORGETTE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Jul 2016 09:06:48 GMT ]]>