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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 311132
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 31 Oct 2014 15:10:25 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311144
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
    ...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 31 the center of VANCE was located near 10.1, -100.8 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm VANCE

  • Tropical Storm VANCE Public Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 311437 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 ...VANCE MOVING ERRATICALLY WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 100.8W ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. VANCE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A WEST- SOUTHWEST MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 6
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 311437 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 100.8W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 9.7N 101.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 9.6N 103.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 6
    Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311438 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014 There hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of Vance during the past several hours. While the central convection has weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature on the east side has increased. Dvorak estimates are similar to 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt. Vance continues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air. Most of the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the weekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence expected as well. The latest model guidance generally shows a higher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at 48-72 hours. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening while the cyclone approaches Mexico. The center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the latest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been creeping toward the south-southwest. A ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days, steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today, westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. While the models are in good agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the timing of the turn toward Mexico. The guidance is generally faster than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend. Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly because of the initial motion and position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 10.1N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 9.7N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 9.6N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
    Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 311437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 1500 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 3(27) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm VANCE Graphics
    Tropical Storm VANCE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 14:40:37 GMT

    Tropical Storm VANCE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Oct 2014 15:05:04 GMT ]]>