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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 291141
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gaston, located east of Bermuda, on Tropical Depression Eight,
located southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Tropical
Depression Nine, located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the central
coast of Texas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent
coastal areas.  Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the
system drifts southwestward during the next day or so.  For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa later today or tonight.  Conditions are expected to be
favorable for gradual development of this system later this week
while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
    ...GASTON DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 29 the center of GASTON was located near 30.8, -55.2 with movement N at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane GASTON

  • Hurricane GASTON Public Advisory Number 27
    Issued at 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 290857 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 ...GASTON DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 55.2W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 55.2 West. Gaston is currently drifting northward. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today or tonight, and an east-northeastward motion is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gaston is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Hurricane GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 27
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 290855 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 55.2W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 150SE 150SW 220NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 55.2W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 55.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.8N 54.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.5N 50.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 36.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 38.5N 30.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 55.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Hurricane GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 27
    Issued at 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290858 TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016 Gaston remains a well-organized hurricane. However, the satellite appearance is slightly less impressive than 6 hours ago, with the eye becoming less distinct and the deep convection eroding in the northwestern quadrant. While the various satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt based on the degraded appearance. The hurricane is currently drifting northward. A slow motion is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so as Gaston is caught between two segments of the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-latitude trough moving southeastward from eastern Canada is expected to weaken the ridge northwest of Gaston, allowing the cyclone to move generally east-northeastward along the southern edge of the westerlies. The model guidance remains tightly packed through 72 hours, and little change was made to the previous forecast for that time. After 72 hours, the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the north, and the forecast track was likewise nudged to stay near the middle of the guidance envelope. Gaston is expected to remain is a light shear/warm water environment for the first 24 hours. During this time, the intensity forecast calls for slight weakening due to dry air entrainment and the possibility that the slow-moving hurricane will upwell cold water. After 24 hours, Gaston is likely to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasing shear, which should cause a gradual weakening. The new forecast intensity is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 30.8N 55.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 31.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 31.8N 54.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 32.5N 52.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 33.5N 50.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 36.5N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 38.5N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Hurricane GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 290919 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Hurricane GASTON Graphics
    Hurricane GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 08:58:13 GMT

    Hurricane GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 09:08:40 GMT ]]>

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
    ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 32.9, -73.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression EIGHT

  • Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 4A
    Issued at 800 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291149 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 800 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 73.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 73.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a slower forward speed is expected later today, with a turn toward the north forecast on Tuesday or Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 73.0W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 73.0W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 33.2N 74.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 38.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290855 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 There has been little change in the structure of the depression since the last advisory, as it is comprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that again is the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the cyclone. The initial motion now is 300/9. For the next 36-48 hours, the depression is expected to move generally northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast. After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and no significant changes have been made to the forecast track through 48 hours. After that time, the guidance shows a more eastward motion, and the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast. The dynamical models still forecast the shear to decrease during the next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist environment. Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina. The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about whether the environment will become as favorable as the models are suggesting, and about whether the cyclone will be able to maintain organized convection. After recurvature, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 32.6N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 33.2N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 35.4N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 38.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 290854 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 13(13) 15(28) 13(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 8( 8) 10(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 14(14) 12(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 11(11) 12(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
    Tropical Depression EIGHT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 11:51:08 GMT

    Tropical Depression EIGHT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 09:09:15 GMT ]]>

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
Issued at  532 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
    ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of NINE was located near 23.5, -83.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE

  • Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290947 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 Corrected to add Cuba to the rainfall statement ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 83.9W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be passing north of the north coast of western Cuba today, and moving farther into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Cuba, with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible through Wednesday. These rains could cause flash floods and mudslides. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches could occur over coastal areas of southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 83.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.7N 85.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.1N 86.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.7N 87.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 25.4N 87.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.8N 85.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 30.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 33.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 83.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290856 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The satellite presentation of the depression is quite ragged this morning, with little deep convection over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or Straits of Florida. The thunderstorm activity that was located to the east and southeast of the center yesterday afternoon and evening, has propagated southwestward and is now located over Cuba and the extreme northern Caribbean Sea, well south of the center due to moderate to strong northerly shear. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been very helpful in locating the low-level center overnight, and wind reports from the aircraft indicate that the depression still has winds of 25 to 30 kt. The intensity forecast for the depression remains of lower confidence than normal. The strong northerly upper-level winds currently over the system are forecast to decrease today, and the depression should be in a more conducive upper-level environment for a day or two. However, the global models indicate that dry mid-level air will remain near and to the northwest of the system, and that, combined with the current poor organization of the depression, suggests that any intensification should be slow to occur during the next day or so. After 48 hours, the upper-level winds should turn southwestward and become more diffluent over the system due to a mid- to upper-level trough that will be digging southward over the eastern United States. This could result in a little more favorable environment, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification between 72 and 120 hours. The NHC forecast remains on the conservative side, and is between the more aggressive statistical guidance and the global models, which do not significantly deepen the system until it moves into the western Atlantic. The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is moving generally westward at about 8 kt. The tropical cyclone should move westward to west-northwestward today to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The depression should turn northwestward and then northward around the western portion of the ridge on Tuesday. After that time, the aforementioned digging trough should begin to steer the cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed. Most of the track guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there are some differences on how fast the system will move northeastward toward the Florida peninsula. The update NHC track is close to a consensus of the global models, and is not very different than the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 23.5N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.7N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 25.4N 87.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.8N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 30.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 33.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 290848 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 6(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 3(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 5(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 3(25) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 12(13) 11(24) 2(26) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) 2(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 11(25) 1(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 11(30) 1(31) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 1(21) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
    Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 08:48:51 GMT

    Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 09:09:51 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291151
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers is located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.  Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few
hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane LESTER (EP3/EP132016)
    ...LESTER MAKES A COMEBACK AND BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 29 the center of LESTER was located near 18.0, -127.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane LESTER

  • Hurricane LESTER Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290852 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE LESTER ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...LESTER MAKES A COMEBACK AND BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 127.8W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lester was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 127.8 West. Lester is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lester is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain ]]>
  • Hurricane LESTER Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290851 TCMEP3 HURRICANE LESTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 127.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.7N 146.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.2N 151.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane LESTER Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290853 TCDEP3 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016 Lester has made a comeback. A ragged eye that had formed around the time of the last advisory has cleared out and warmed significantly. The hurricane's central dense overcast has also expanded and become more axisymmetric while the cyclone has shed its outer bands. Overall, the characteristics exhibited by Lester are those that typify annular hurricanes. The Dvorak T-number from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt at 0600 UTC, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values around T5.4/100 kt. Given these data, the initial intensity estimate is raised to 100 kt, making Lester the fourth major hurricane of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is 270/13. A strong subtropical ridge north of Lester should continue to steer the hurricane nearly due west for the next 3 days. After that time, a probable binary interaction with Madeline should result in a west-northwestward shift in the cyclone's heading as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. Except for the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance is relatively tightly clustered through 5 days. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions. In general, Lester should be embedded in a light easterly shear environment during the next several days while it moves over nearly constant sea surface temperatures between 26-27 deg C. These conditions suggest that Lester could maintain its current annular characteristics for some time, even though the large-scale environment is only marginally conducive for it to do so. Lester's current intensification phase has caused the NHC intensity forecast to be increased quite a bit over the previous one. It is also above nearly all of the guidance throughout the period, especially in the short term, given the tendency of forecasts for annular hurricanes to overestimate their future filling rate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 18.0N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.0N 129.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 18.2N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 18.7N 146.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 20.2N 151.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain ]]>
  • Hurricane LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290852 PWSEP3 HURRICANE LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 0900 UTC MON AUG 29 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 7 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 6(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 2(19) X(19) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 41(51) 1(52) 1(53) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 32(45) 5(50) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 31(43) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane LESTER Graphics
    Hurricane LESTER 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 08:58:05 GMT

    Hurricane LESTER 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 09:10:25 GMT ]]>