Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

 

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

nhcfeedparse

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 022332
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa
several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands Thursday
or Friday.  Conditions appear conducive for slow development over
the weekend as the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
    ...FRED SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 20.6, -32.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm FRED

  • Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 ...FRED SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 32.7W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is encountering strong upper-level winds, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and become a post-tropical low by Thursday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 32.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 32.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 32.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N 33.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.8N 35.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 28.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 32.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030235 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. Fred should move west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic. The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance envelope. Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72 hours. This, in combination with dry air entraining into the cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not earlier. After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and increasing moisture. In theory, this could allow the system to regenerate. However, while the dynamical models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of them show any significant intensification in the more favorable environment. Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a weak remnant low through 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.6N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 33.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 28.5N 41.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 030235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
    Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 02:54:20 GMT

    Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 03:07:47 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022326
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED SEP 2 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of cloudiness and showers has formed several hundred
miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Upper-level winds could become
favorable for some development of this system over the weekend
while it drifts slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E (EP4/EP142015)
    ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 the center of FOURTEEN-E was located near 17.0, -115.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E

  • Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 115.0W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday before Gradual weakening is forecast on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
    Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015 Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center of the depression. Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour. The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. I suspect this is on the conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is more concrete data to support an upgrade. The cyclone has about a day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air infiltrates the circulation. Remnant low status is anticipated by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions. The NHC wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit higher than the intensity consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt. The global models are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. The biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response to the low-level flow. In general, the model guidance has trended a bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
    Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 27 19(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics
    Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 02:34:54 GMT

    Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 03:10:00 GMT ]]>