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NHC Atlantic

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 011733
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 01 Aug 2015 19:28:39 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific


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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011724
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Guillermo, located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane GUILLERMO (EP4/EP092015)
    ...GUILLERMO ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 the center of GUILLERMO was located near 13.5, -139.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane GUILLERMO

  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015 ...GUILLERMO ON ITS WAY TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 139.0W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Guillermo was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 139.0 West. Guillermo is now moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in intensity is expected today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 011432 TCMEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011432 TCDEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015 The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday when there was a hint of an eye on satellite imagery. However, Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies still support an initial intensity of 90 kt. It appears that Guillermo has already peaked in intensity, and the hurricane is heading toward an environment no longer favorable for strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a steady state during the next 12 hours or so, and a gradual weakening thereafter. By the time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian Islands, the upper-level winds are forecast to be even more unfavorable, and by then, Guillermo is expected to have weakened to a tropical storm. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus model ICON. The steering currents have begun to weaken, and Guillermo is slowing down. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is already located on the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and there is a large weakness of the ridge to its northwest. This pattern should force the cyclone to slow down even further and turn more to the west-northwest. The GFS insists on a more northwesterly component bringing the center of Guillermo north of the Hawaiian Islands. The ECMWF, on the other hand, brings the cyclone south or near the Islands. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is basically on top of the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models. Due to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is important for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96 and 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72 hours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at those time periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.5N 139.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 011432 PWSEP4 HURRICANE GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 2 23(25) 50(75) 6(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 145W 50 X 3( 3) 36(39) 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 9(23) 2(25) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 2(21) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane GUILLERMO Graphics
    Hurricane GUILLERMO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2015 14:34:20 GMT

    Hurricane GUILLERMO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2015 19:27:48 GMT ]]>