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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012344
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricance Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Five, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression FIVE (AT5/AL052014)
    ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 the center of FIVE was located near 21.0, -93.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression FIVE

  • Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 93.9W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 93.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 93.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 93.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FIVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020236 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north, which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday, moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west- northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position. Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the mountains of eastern Mexico. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FIVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FONT15 KNHC 020236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PESCO MX 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) TAMPICO MX 34 X 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Depression FIVE Graphics
    Tropical Depression FIVE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 02:37:33 GMT

    Tropical Depression FIVE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 03:03:47 GMT ]]>

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012344
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern
coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week.  This disturbance is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward and could produce locally heavy
rains over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 02 Sep 2014 03:08:07 GMT